ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 53 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT MON SEP 06 2004 RADAR...SURFACE AND SATELLITE DATA PLACE THE CENTER OVER SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA AND MOVING 340/10. THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS SHOW A SLOW...LESS THAN 10 KT...MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEAST FOR 48 HOURS FOLLOWED BY SOME ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THIS TRACK IS AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS BEING ERODED TO THE NORTH OF FRANCES. BY 72 HOURS...FRANCES SHOULD BE EXTRATROPICAL AS IT MERGES WITH THE WESTERLIES. MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO ABOUT 30 KT AND FRANCES IS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE ONLY HIGHER VALUES IN THE PAST FEW HOURS WERE ST AUGUSTINE C-MAN AT 01Z WITH 33 KT AT 16.5 M ELEVATION AND FROM A SHIP OFF THE GEORGIA COAST AT 00Z WITH 35 KT. THERE IS STILL A SUBSTANTIAL BANDING FEATURE FROM NORTH THROUGH EAST THROUGH SOUTH OF THE CENTER AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS RISING VERY SLOWLY...NOW ESTIMATED AT 985 MB. IT IS LIKELY THAT WINDS WILL GUST TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS OVER A LARGE AREA AS THE BANDING FEATURE ROTATES AROUND THE DEPRESSION. THE NEXT PUBLIC ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER. FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/0300Z 31.3N 84.6W 30 KT...INLAND 12HR VT 07/1200Z 32.3N 84.9W 30 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 08/0000Z 33.7N 85.3W 25 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 08/1200Z 35.0N 85.0W 25 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 09/0000Z 37.0N 84.0W 25 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 10/0000Z 41.5N 79.5W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 11/0000Z...MERGED WITH FRONT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 07-Sep-2004 02:22:51 UTC