ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 48 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SUN SEP 05 2004 RADAR DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LARGE CENTER OF CIRCULATION OF FRANCES CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA WHILE WEAKENING. ALTHOUGH THE PRESSURE REMAINS QUITE LOW...975 MB... THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 60 KNOTS. FRANCES IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ABOUT 9 KNOTS AND THEN EMERGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE TONIGHT. BECAUSE FRANCES HAS MAINTAINED A WELL-DEFINED CLOUD STRUCTURE ON RADAR AND SHOULD BE OVER WATER FOR 12 HOURS OR SO...IT COULD REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS AGAIN BEFORE MOVING INLAND WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/2100Z 28.0N 82.2W 60 KT 12HR VT 06/0600Z 28.5N 83.5W 65 KT...OVER WATER 24HR VT 06/1800Z 29.7N 85.0W 65 KT...MOVING INLAND 36HR VT 07/0600Z 31.5N 86.0W 30 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 07/1800Z 32.5N 86.0W 25 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 08/1800Z 36.0N 85.0W 25 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 09/1800Z 39.5N 81.5W 10 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 10/1800Z...INLAND $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Sunday, 05-Sep-2004 20:42:51 UTC