ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 40 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT FRI SEP 03 2004 DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE AND SATELLITE INDICATE THAT FRANCES HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND REMAINS A DANGEROUS HURRICANE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 100 KNOTS BUT...BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS FROM THE STEPPED-FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER...SFMR...INSTRUMENT ON BOARD A NOAA AIRCRAFT...THE WIND FIELD APPEARS TO BE EXPANDING A LITTLE BIT. THIS NECESSITATES EXTENSION OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTHWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. THE HURRICANE HAS ABOUT 24 HOURS TO STRENGTHEN...IF AT ALL...WHILE MOVING OVER WATER. ALTHOUGH NONE OF THE GUIDANCE SHOW SIGNIFICANT STREGTHENING...THERE IS A SMALL OPPORTUNITY FOR FRANCES TO RE-INTENSIFY SOMEWHAT AS IT PASSES OVER THE GULF STREAM AND APPROACHES THE FLORIDA COAST. AS ANTICIPATED...THE HURRICANE IS MOVING RIGHT ON TRACK WITH THE USUAL WOBBLES. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300 DEGREES OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 7 KNOTS AND A TRACK BETWEEN THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. BECAUSE NEITHER THE STEERING NOR THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAVE CHANGED..THERE IS NO POINT TO DISCUSS IT AGAIN. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT FRANCES...A POWERFUL HURRICANE...IS FORECAST TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY ACROSS FLORIDA. HOWEVER...THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF LANDFALL CAN NOT BE SPECIFIED EXACTLY. BECAUSE FRANCES IS A SLOW MOVING HURRICANE...IT COULD BRING TORRENTIAL RAINS TO PORTIONS OF FLORIDA. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/2100Z 25.9N 77.5W 100 KT 12HR VT 04/0600Z 26.5N 78.4W 100 KT 24HR VT 04/1800Z 27.4N 80.0W 105 KT 36HR VT 05/0600Z 28.0N 81.5W 70 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 05/1800Z 28.5N 82.5W 35 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 06/1800Z 31.1N 85.0W 30 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 07/1800Z 35.1N 87.0W 20 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 08/1800Z 40.0N 85.0W 20 KT...INLAND $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 03-Sep-2004 20:52:48 UTC