ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT WED AUG 18 2004 SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT DANIELLE IS WEAKENING DUE PRIMARILY TO SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO ITS WEST. THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS WELL REMOVED FROM THE CONVECTION AND THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME VERY POORLY ORGANIZED. THE CENTER OF DANIELLE PASSED NEAR A DRIFTING BUOY WHICH MEASURED ONLY 1008.6 MB. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED TO 45 KNOTS AND THIS APPEARS TO BE A GENEROUS ESTIMATE. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN HIGH SO WEAKENING IS EXPECTED. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL. DANIELLE HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 030 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS. STEERING CURRENTS ARE COLLAPSING AND THERE IS NO CHOICE BUT TO FORECAST A REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS WHICH ARE MOVING THE CYCLONE SLOWER THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLOW NORTHEASTWARD TRACK DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED THEREAFTER. ON THIS TRACK...DANIELLE WILL LIKELY BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN 4 DAYS OR SO. ON THE OTHER HAND...IF THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND BECOMES A SHALLOW DEPRESSION OR A REMNANT LOW...IT COULD MEANDER FOR A FEW DAYS PRODUCING INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF CONVECTION. THE LATTER IS THE SOLUTION OF THE GFS WHICH IS BY NO MEANS OUT OF THE QUESTION. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/2100Z 29.3N 38.4W 45 KT 12HR VT 19/0600Z 30.6N 38.2W 35 KT 24HR VT 19/1800Z 32.0N 37.5W 30 KT 36HR VT 20/0600Z 33.0N 36.5W 25 KT 48HR VT 20/1800Z 33.5N 35.0W 25 KT 72HR VT 21/1800Z 34.5N 32.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 22/1800Z 37.0N 28.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 23/1800Z 40.0N 24.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Wednesday, 18-Aug-2004 20:42:30 UTC