ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SUN AUG 15 2004 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT DANIELLE HAS MAINTAINED A SMALL EYE THAT HAS OCCASIONALLY BEEN OBSCURED BY COLD CLOUD TOPS OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST EYE WALL. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE NOW A CONSENSUS 5.0 FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BUMPED UP TO 90 KT FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE. IT APPEARS THAT LESS DRY AIR IS BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE HURRICANE AND THE SYSTEM NOW HAS A MORE CIRCULAR REPRESENTATION WITH GOOD OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS. A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 2016Z INDICATED THAT THE WIND FIELD AROUND DANIELLE IS NOT AS LARGE AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AND THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN TRIMMED BACK TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE VERTICAL SHEAR OVER DANIELLE IS RELATIVELY LOW AT THE MOMENT AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ALMOST UNIFORM ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AFTER ABOUT 24 HOURS SO THE FORECAST INTENSITY IS HELD AT 90 KT OVER THE NEXT DAY WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING THEREAFTER...ROUGHLY IN BETWEEN THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE. DANIELLE IS NOW MOVING AT 305/15...A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS MOTION...AS EXPECTED. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE RECURVES DANIELLE TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST THROUGH FIVE DAYS IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LEVEL TROUGH SOUTH OF THE AZORES. THE OUTLIER IS THE GFS...WHICH PRACTICALLY DISSIPATES DANIELLE WITHIN 72 HOURS. GIVEN THE CURRENT STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AND THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...WHICH MAINTAINS DANIELLE AS A STRONG CYCLONE...THIS SCENARIO SEEMS LESS LIKELY AT THIS TIME. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS HEAVILY ON A CONSESUS OF THE OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS AND IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. IF DANIELLE HAPPENS TO WEAKEN A LITTLE FASTER THAN EXPECTED...THE DEGREE OF RECURVATURE MAY NOT BE AS PRONOUNCED. FORECASTER BERG/FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/0300Z 16.4N 35.4W 90 KT 12HR VT 16/1200Z 17.9N 36.9W 90 KT 24HR VT 17/0000Z 19.9N 38.5W 90 KT 36HR VT 17/1200Z 22.0N 39.8W 85 KT 48HR VT 18/0000Z 24.0N 40.5W 80 KT 72HR VT 19/0000Z 28.5N 41.0W 75 KT 96HR VT 20/0000Z 32.5N 39.0W 65 KT 120HR VT 21/0000Z 35.0N 35.0W 50 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 16-Aug-2004 02:52:29 UTC