| HOME | ARCHIVES | FORECASTS | IMAGERY | ABOUT NHC | RECONNAISSANCE |

---

Hurricane ALEX (Text)

ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU AUG 05 2004
 
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ARE BEGINNING TO WARM...BUT DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS WERE UNCHANGED AT T5.5 AT 12Z...SO THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 105 KT. ALEX SHOULD MOVE NORTH OF THE GULF
STREAM INTO MUCH COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DURING THE NEXT
6-12 HOURS AND THIS SHOULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING. ALEX IS
EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WITHIN 36 HOURS...AND
HELP INVIGORATE A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW BY 72 HOURS.
 
ALEX CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE AND THE THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW
065/30. ALEX REMAINS EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLIES AND SHOULD CONTINUE
AN ACCELERATING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION FOR 24 HR OR
SO...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE EAST. TRACK GUIDANCE IS
UNUSUALLY WELL-CLUSTERED AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS A
CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      05/1500Z 41.7N  57.6W   105 KT
 12HR VT     06/0000Z 44.0N  51.5W    90 KT
 24HR VT     06/1200Z 46.5N  42.0W    65 KT
 36HR VT     07/0000Z 47.0N  32.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     07/1200Z 47.0N  22.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     08/1200Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW
 
 
$$
NNNN