ZCZC MIATCPEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN HURRICANE OLAF ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT SUN OCT 05 2003 ...OLAF CONTINUING NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO TO SAN BLAS...INCLUDING THE ISLAS MARIAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST SOUTH OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO LAZARO CARDENAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE MEXICAN MAINLAND TONIGHT. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OLAF. AT 2 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OLAF WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.3 WEST OR ABOUT 90 MILES...145 KM...SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. OLAF IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF OLAF PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF MEXICO. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER ONSHORE IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE OLAF. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE JUST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF MEXICO AND COULD SPREAD ONSHORE IN THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA TODAY. RAINBANDS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN MEXICO TODAY. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. REPEATING THE 2 PM PDT POSITION...18.1 N...105.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 987 MB. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 8 PM PDT. FORECASTER BEVEN NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:08 UTC