ZCZC MIATCPAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 6...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM CDT FRI AUG 15 2003 CORRECTED AIRCRAFT PRESSURE PARAGRAPH ...ERIKA CONTINUING WESTWARD AND STRENGTHENING...SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AS A HURRICANE BEFORE DAYBREAK... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM BROWNSVILLE TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM LA PESCA MEXICO NORTHWARD TO THE U.S. BORDER. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO PORT O'CONNOR. AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.4 WEST OR ABOUT 130 MILES...210 KM...EAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. ERIKA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF ERIKA TO THE WESTERN GULF COAST NEAR BROWNSVILLE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...115 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL AND ERIKA SHOULD BECOME A HURRICANE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ERIKA WILL LIKELY MAKE LANDFALL AS A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER LANDFALL. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES ...220 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE EXTRAPOLATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BE 3 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE BATTERING WAVES...NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE PATH OF ERIKA. THIS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODS...AND MUDSLIDES IN AREAS NEAR ELEVATED TERRAIN. RADAR DATA SHOWS OUTER RAINBANDS SHOULD REACH THE COAST SHORTLY. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TORNADOES ALONG THE MIDDLE AND LOWER TEXAS COAST TONIGHT. REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...26.0 N... 95.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 992 MB. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT MIDNIGHT CDT AND 2 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 AM CDT. FORECASTER BEVEN NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:04 UTC