ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT FRI OCT 24 2003 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 340/04 IS UNCERTAIN SINCE THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS MOST DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ABOUT A SLOW NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE STORM IS MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE. BY AROUND DAY 3...MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW A WEAKENING SYSTEM BEING STEERED BY LOWER-LEVEL FLOW AND TURNING TOWARD THE WEST OR NORTHWEST. ONLY THE NOGAPS DIFFERS MUCH WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR VERY SLOW MOTION AND IT FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. VISIBLE IMAGES THIS EVENING SUGGEST THAT THERE MAY NOT BE A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CENTER. IF IT WERE NOT FOR A RECENT BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE ASSUMED CENTER...IT WOULD BE TEMPTING TO DECLARE THE SYSTEM DISSIPATED. HOWEVER DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE STILL AT 35 KNOTS AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS 35 KNOTS. THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THERE IS A 24-HOUR WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME STRENGTHENING BEFORE THE VERTICAL SHEAR BECOMES PROHIBITIVE AT 30 KNOTS. FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/0300Z 14.7N 113.5W 35 KT 12HR VT 25/1200Z 15.3N 113.7W 40 KT 24HR VT 26/0000Z 16.4N 113.9W 40 KT 36HR VT 26/1200Z 17.4N 114.2W 40 KT 48HR VT 27/0000Z 18.0N 114.4W 35 KT 72HR VT 28/0000Z 18.6N 114.7W 30 KT 96HR VT 29/0000Z 20.0N 115.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:01 UTC