ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2003 PATRICIA REMAINS SHEARED THIS MORNING WITH THE LOW LEVEL-CENTER EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE CLUSTER....WHICH HAS DECREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. NEW BURSTS OF CONVECTION HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA...AND 45 KT FROM TAFB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 290/9. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AND UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 22N128W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING TO 14N116W. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LARGE-SCALE MODEL ANALYSES INDICATE THAT PATRICIA IS SOUTH OF A WEAK LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THE COMBINATION OF EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS SEVERAL POSSIBLE FORECAST SCENARIOS...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE SPREAD OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE. THE GFDL CALLS FOR PATRICIA TO RECURVE BACK TOWARD THE MEXICAN COAST AS A HURRICANE...AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY LBAR AND BAMD. THE GFS CALLS FOR A WEAKER SYSTEM TO CONTINUE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...AND IT IS SUPPORTED BY THE BAMM AND BAMS. THE NOGAPS AND THE UKMET CALLS FOR A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...FOLLWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST AFTER 72 HR. SINCE PATRICIA IS CURRENTLY POORLY-ORGANIZED AND VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD NOT ALLOW MUCH DEVELOPMENT...THE FORECAST TRACK IS A BLEND BETWEEN THE GFS...NOGAPS...AND UKMET SOLUTIONS. IT CALLS FOR A BEND TO THE NORTHWEST IN 12-24 HR...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER 72 HR. LARGE-SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST THAT PATRICIA WILL BE AFFECTED BY WESTERLY SHEAR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THUS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH THROUGH 48 HR. THE MODELS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE SHEAR COULD TEMPORARILY DECREASE IN ABOUT 24 HR...BUT THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW AND IT WILL NOT BE REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST. AFTER 48 HR...A WEAKENING TREND SHOULD BEGIN AS THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/0900Z 13.1N 110.0W 50 KT 12HR VT 23/1800Z 13.8N 111.0W 50 KT 24HR VT 24/0600Z 14.6N 111.9W 50 KT 36HR VT 24/1800Z 15.6N 112.9W 50 KT 48HR VT 25/0600Z 16.7N 113.9W 50 KT 72HR VT 26/0600Z 18.5N 115.5W 45 KT 96HR VT 27/0600Z 19.5N 118.0W 40 KT 120HR VT 28/0600Z 20.0N 120.5W 35 KT NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:01 UTC