ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2003 SSM/I AND TRMM OVERPASSES AT ABOUT 04Z INDICATE THAT PATRICIA HAS BECOME SHEARED...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER EXPOSED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CONVECTION. THIS DEVELOPMENT IS NOT APPARENT YET IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY...AS THE CENTER IS STILL UNDER OR NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE OVERCAST. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DEMISE OF THE EYE THAT WAS PRESENT IN MICROWAVE DATA NEAR 21/12Z...THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 65 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/8. THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE JOINED AT THE HIP. A WELL-DEVELOPED PATRICIA WOULD TURN NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD...AS FORECAST BY THE GFDL...GFDN...AND LBAR. THIS WOULD TAKE THE STORM INTO AN AREA OF STRONGER WESTERLY SHEAR THAT WOULD CAUSE WEAKENING. ON THE OTHER HAND...A LESS-DEVELOPED SYSTEM WOULD TAKE A MORE WESTERLY TRACK IN LINE WITH THE GFS... BAMS...AND BAMM...WHICH WOULD KEEP THE SYSTEM AWAY FROM THE STRONGER SHEAR AND ALLOW SOME DEVELOPMENT. THE UKMET AND NOGAPS ARE SOMEWHAT IN BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES...SHOWING A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOLLOWED BY A WESTWARD TURN AFTER 72 HR. THE FORECAST TRACK IS BASED ON THE PREMISE THAT PATRICIA WILL STAY WELL ENOUGH ORGANIZED TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWARD...BUT NOT WELL ENOUGH ORGANIZED...PARTICULARLY LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...TO FULLY RECURVE. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED SOMEWHAT TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH NHC91 AND BAMD. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ALL FORECAST UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES IN THE PATH OF PATRICIA. HOWEVER...THEY AGREE THAT THE STRONGEST FLOW SHOULD STAY NORTH OF 17N. THE GFDL STRENGTHENS PATRICIA TO A MAJOR HURRICANE IN SPITE OF THE SHEAR DURING RECURVATURE. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE SHIPS MODEL SEES ENOUGH SHEAR ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK TO CALL FOR STEADY WEAKENING AFTER 12 HR. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST WILL COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES...AND MAINTAIN SOME CONSISTENCY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BY CALLING FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING FOR 24-36 HR FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING AFTER 48 HR. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/0900Z 12.1N 106.1W 65 KT 12HR VT 22/1800Z 12.5N 107.2W 65 KT 24HR VT 23/0600Z 13.1N 108.4W 70 KT 36HR VT 23/1800Z 13.9N 109.6W 70 KT 48HR VT 24/0600Z 14.8N 110.7W 70 KT 72HR VT 25/0600Z 16.5N 112.0W 65 KT 96HR VT 26/0600Z 18.0N 112.5W 55 KT 120HR VT 27/0600Z 19.5N 112.5W 45 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:01 UTC