ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT MON OCT 06 2003 OLAF IS GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON. WHAT WAS A CONVECTION-FREE CLOUD SWIRL LATE THIS MORNING HAS REDEVELOPED STRONG CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES. WHILE THE QUIKSCAT PASS AT 12Z INDICATED THAT WINDS AT THAT TIME WERE ONLY 35 KT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 45 KT BASED ON THE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING. CONTINUED RE-DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE UNTIL THE CIRCULATION ENCOUNTERS THE MEXICAN LAND MASS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ABOVE THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. SHOULD OLAF TAKE A PATH TO THE LEFT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AND STAY OFFSHORE...IT WOULD ALMOST SURELY GET STRONGER THAN INDICATED BELOW. HOWEVER...OLAF SHOULD ENCOUNTER INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ONCE IT GETS NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 350/5. A SMALL MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO WILL ERODE OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...BUT MIGHT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP OLAF JUST OFFSHORE. A LARGE CUTOFF LOW OFF THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA IS DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD...AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A BEND IN THE TRACK BACK TO THE RIGHT. THE GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT FOLLOW THE VORTEX WELL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE GFS THROUGH 48 H AND THE MEDIUM BAM THEREAFTER. THE SHALLOW CIRCULATION OF WEAKENING NORA IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE TRACK OF OLAF. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/2100Z 18.3N 104.5W 45 KT 12HR VT 07/0600Z 19.0N 104.7W 50 KT 24HR VT 07/1800Z 20.0N 105.2W 40 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 08/0600Z 21.3N 105.6W 30 KT...OVER WATER 48HR VT 08/1800Z 23.0N 106.0W 25 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 09/1800Z 26.5N 106.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:00 UTC