ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT SUN OCT 05 2003 NORA CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE DISORGANIZED. DEEP CONVECTION IS NO LONGER PERSISTENT AND THE SYSTEM IS STRUGGLING UNDER SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW FROM OLAF. DVORAK DATA T NUMBERS ARE FALLING...AND CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 90 KT FROM TAFB AND 77 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS REDUCED SLIGHTLY TO 75 KT. THE MOTION DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS IS 325/5...ALTHOUGH MORE RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST A SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A DEVELOPING MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH JUST WEST OF CALIFORNIA...WHICH DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY SOUTHWARD. SOME OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE...IN PARTICULAR THE NOGAPS AND GFDL...RESPOND BY TAKING NORA ON A FAST NORTHERLY TRACK. HOWEVER...INTERACTION WITH OLAF WILL LIKELY RESULT IN NORA MOVING MORE SLOWLY DURING THE FIRST 36 HOURS...AND MORE NORTHEASTERLY THEREAFTER. THIS SOLUTION IS SIMILAR TO THE UKMET AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT A LITTLE TO THE LEFT. NORA IS LIKELY TO ENCOUNTER STEADILY INCREASING SHEAR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...DUE TO SOME COMBINATION OF THE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH AND TO THE OUTFLOW FROM OLAF. MEANWHILE THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER MARGINALLY WARM 26C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. AS A RESULT...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING...SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. FORECASTER KNABB/JARVINEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/0300Z 20.0N 114.0W 75 KT 12HR VT 06/1200Z 20.5N 114.2W 70 KT 24HR VT 07/0000Z 21.0N 114.0W 65 KT 36HR VT 07/1200Z 21.5N 113.4W 55 KT 48HR VT 08/0000Z 22.1N 112.6W 50 KT 72HR VT 09/0000Z 23.5N 111.0W 40 KT 96HR VT 10/0000Z 26.0N 109.0W 30 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 11/0000Z 30.0N 108.0W 20 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:00 UTC