ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT SAT OCT 04 2003 LATEST T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB GIVE 102 AND 90 KTS RESPECTIVELY. HOWEVER...THE LAST FEW SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW THAT THE EYE HAS BECOME OBSCURE AND THE OUTFLOW FROM OLAF IS STARTING TO DISRUPT NORA'S OUTFLOW. NORA MAY HAVE REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY AT 90 KTS AND THAT IS WHAT THE INITIAL WIND SPEED WILL BE FOR THIS ADVISORY. NORA CONTINUES MOVING AT 315/8. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWEST AROUND A RIDGE OVER MEXICO...TURN NORTH AND SLOW DOWN DUE TO A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN THE STEERING FLOW AND THEN...IN ABOUT 48 TO 60 HOURS...BE ADVECTED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD BY A TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST . SHIPS GUIDANCE GRADUALLY WEAKENS NORA THROUGH DAY 4 AND DISSIPATES THE SYSTEM AT DAY 5. THE MAIN REASON IS VERTICAL SHEAR...BUT THE SHIPS MODEL HAS THE SHEAR DIRECTION COMING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...DUE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WHEN IN REALITY NORA IS NOW BEGINNING TO FEEL THE OUTFLOW FROM OLAF WHICH IS COMING FROM THE SOUTHEAST. SO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE IS USED BUT MODIFIED SLIGHTLY DUE TO THE CURRENT SHEAR PATTERN. FORECASTER JARVINEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/0300Z 18.3N 112.8W 90 KT 12HR VT 05/1200Z 19.1N 113.4W 90 KT 24HR VT 06/0000Z 20.1N 114.0W 85 KT 36HR VT 06/1200Z 20.8N 114.2W 80 KT 48HR VT 07/0000Z 21.4N 114.3W 70 KT 72HR VT 08/0000Z 22.6N 114.3W 55 KT 96HR VT 09/0000Z 23.7N 114.1W 45 KT 120HR VT 10/0000Z 24.8N 113.9W 35 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:00 UTC