ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT TUE SEP 23 2003 DEEP CONVECTION IS DIMINISHING AND BECOMING INCREASINGLY SEPARATED FROM THE CIRCULATION CENTER. AVERAGING THE 06Z T AND CI NUMBERS YIELDS 45 KT FROM AFWA AND SAB...AND 55 KT FROM TAFB. SINCE THE CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO DIMINISH SINCE THEN...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET AT THE LOW END OF THIS RANGE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 335/12. MARTY CONTINUES UP THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BUT THE FORWARD SPEED IS DECREASING AS INDICATED BY EARLIER TRACK GUIDANCE. MARTY IS BUMPING UP AGAINST A MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER NEVADA AND THE FORWARD SPEED SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOW. THE GFDL IN FACT SUGGESTS THAT MARTY WILL NOT MOVE VERY FAR FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION...WHILE THE GFS BRINGS THE CENTER INTO THE EXTREME NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA BEFORE STALLING IT. OTHER MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME HOLDING ON TO A TRACKABLE CENTER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND STALLS THE CYCLONE IN THE NORTHERN GULF. THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN FROM SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO BUT REMAIN STRONG. THIS SHEARING FLOW...COUPLED WITH THE DISRUPTING INFLUENCES OF NEARBY HIGH TERRAIN...IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN CONTINUED WEAKENING UNTIL THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES... PERHAPS WITH 24-36 HOURS. MOISTURE AND RAINS FROM MARTY ARE SPREADING INTO ARIZONA...NEW MEXICO...AND WEST TEXAS. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/0900Z 28.8N 112.8W 45 KT 12HR VT 23/1800Z 30.0N 113.5W 40 KT 24HR VT 24/0600Z 31.0N 114.0W 30 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 24/1800Z 31.0N 114.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:59 UTC