ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2003 INFRARED AND NIGHTTIME VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT LINDA HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE DISORGANIZED. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS DRY AIR WRAPPING INTO THE CYCLONE FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST...WHILE SOUTHERLY SHEAR HAS DISPLACED THE CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN AT THIS TIME DUE TO CIRRUS CLOUDS...BUT I HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE CENTER SOUTH AND EAST OF THE SATELLITE FIX POSITIONS AND A TAD WEST OF THE LOCATION NOTED IN A 16/0446Z SSMI OVERPASS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/03. THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT LINDA SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION GETS PUSHED SOUTHWARD BY THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS CLOSE TO THE GFDL-GFS MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK KEEPS LINDA OVER 27C OR WARMER SSTS AND UNDER DECREASING VERTICAL SHEAR...WHICH WOULD GENERALLY SUGGEST THAT SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION COULD OCCUR. THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL TAKES LINDA DOWN TO A 30-KT DEPRESSION IN 24 HOURS AND HOLDS THAT INTENSITY THROUGH 72 HOURS...AFTER WHICH IT RE-STRENGTHENS THE CYCLONE BACK TO 44 KT BY 120 HOURS. HOWEVER... I HAVE OPTED TO HOLD THE CYCLONE AT MINIMAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH SINCE THE CYCLONE WILL ALSO BE EMBEDDED IN VERY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR AND CLOSE TO A LARGE FIELD OF STABLE COLD-AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS. THIS LOWER INTENSITY IN THE LONGER TIME PERIODS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GFDL MODEL... WHICH STEADILY WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES THE CYCLONE BY 84 HOURS. ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ALSO DISSIPATE LINDA BY ABOUT 72 HOURS. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/1500Z 20.6N 115.1W 45 KT 12HR VT 17/0000Z 20.7N 115.5W 40 KT 24HR VT 17/1200Z 20.7N 116.0W 35 KT 36HR VT 18/0000Z 20.3N 117.2W 35 KT 48HR VT 18/1200Z 19.7N 118.3W 30 KT 72HR VT 19/1200Z 19.0N 120.0W 30 KT 96HR VT 20/1200Z 18.0N 121.5W 30 KT 120HR VT 21/1200Z 17.5N 123.0W 30 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:58 UTC