ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT SAT AUG 30 2003 AFTER RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...JIMENA APPEARS TO BE LEVELLING OFF. INFRARED AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATE THAT JIMENA MAINTAINS A 10 NM DIAMETER EYE...ALTHOUGH IT HAS FILLED IN SLIGHTLY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 90 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...77 KT FROM HONOLULU...AND 102 KT FROM AFWA. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 85 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. INITIAL MOTION NOW HAS A SLIGHTLY MORE WESTWARD COMPONENT...275 AT 15 KNOTS. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO CALL FOR BUILDING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND MAINTAIN IT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER JIMENA TO THE WEST...AND AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED AFTER 36 HOURS. THE UKMET PERSISTS AS THE NORTHERN OUTLIER. GIVEN THE INITIAL MOTION AND THE BUILDING RIDGE...THIS SOLUTION DOES NOT SEEM LIKELY BUT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY IGNORED. THE FORECAST TRACK ALONG 18N IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL AND THE CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...AND IT IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. GIVEN THE WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTROL THE INTENSITY. JIMENA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY CLOSE TO THE 26C SST ISOTHERM FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY PASSAGE OVER SLIGHTLY WARMER WATERS BEYOND 72 HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS LEVEL AT 85 KT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH ONLY GRADUAL WEAKENING THEREAFTER. THIS FORECAST IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE. SINCE JIMENA HAS CROSSED 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE...THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER. FORECASTER BEVEN/KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/0900Z 17.3N 140.7W 85 KT 12HR VT 30/1800Z 17.5N 143.3W 85 KT 24HR VT 31/0600Z 17.7N 146.7W 85 KT 36HR VT 31/1800Z 17.9N 150.5W 80 KT 48HR VT 01/0600Z 18.0N 154.2W 80 KT 72HR VT 02/0600Z 18.0N 160.5W 75 KT 96HR VT 03/0600Z 18.0N 166.5W 70 KT 120HR VT 04/0600Z 18.0N 171.5W 70 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC