ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT FRI AUG 29 2003 VISIBLE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SMALL...ROUND...CLOUD-FILLED EYE WITH IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW TO THE NORTH...AND DEVELOPING BANDING FEATURES SOUTH OF THE CENTER. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB AND AFWA ARE 77 KT. BASED ON THIS LASTEST INFORMATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 75 KT. INITIAL MOTION REMAINS WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KNOTS. ALL OF THE LARGE SCALE MODELS INCLUDING THE GFDL AND GFDN INDICATE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS IN 36 HOURS...WHICH WOULD CREATE A MORE WESTWARD MOTION. ONLY THE UKMET DEPICTS A MORE PRONOUNCED WEAKNESS SUGGESTING A TRACK TO THE RIGHT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MODELS. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND AGREES WITH THE GUNS/GUNA CONSENSUS. JIMENA IS CURRENTLY OVER WARM WATERS (27-28C)...HOWEVER...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER SUB-26C WATERS AS IT MOVES WEST OF 140W. THE INTENSITY FORECAST LEVELS OFF AT 80 KT AFTER 12 HOURS WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS MODEL. THE GFDL WEAKENS THE SYSTEM BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH AFTER 24 HOURS AND THE UKMET DROPS THE SYSTEM BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AFTER 48 HOURS. A POSSIBILITY STILL EXISTS...HOWEVER...OF FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AFTER 36 HOURS IF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ENTERS A REGION OF WARMER SSTS SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND. FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/2100Z 17.1N 137.6W 75 KT 12HR VT 30/0600Z 17.5N 139.7W 80 KT 24HR VT 30/1800Z 17.8N 142.8W 80 KT 36HR VT 31/0600Z 17.8N 146.0W 80 KT 48HR VT 31/1800Z 17.8N 149.1W 75 KT 72HR VT 01/1800Z 18.0N 155.0W 75 KT 96HR VT 02/1800Z 18.0N 159.0W 70 KT 120HR VT 03/1800Z 18.0N 162.5W 70 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC