ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2003 ENHANCED INFRARED AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICT THAT JIMENA CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM TAFB...65 KT FROM SAB...55 KT FROM CPHC AND 55 KT FROM AFWA. A 0923Z TRMM PASS REVEALED A DISTINCT...SMALL EYE BENEATH THE DEEP CONVECTION. BASED ON THIS DATA...THE TROPICAL STORM IS UPGRADED TO HURRICANE JIMENA WITH 65 KT SUSTAINED WINDS. INITIAL MOTION REMAINS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 290 DEGRESS...BUT SLIGHTLY FASTER AT 14 KNOTS. THE PAST FEW MICROWAVE IMAGES HAVE HELPED IN LOCATING THE POSITION AND MOTION. THERE APPEARS TO BE LESS STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO FILL AND LIFT OUT ALLOWING THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO RE-ESTABLISH. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH 72 HOURS. THEREAFTER A SLIGHTLY SLOWER MOTION IS ANTICIPATED. ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE THE RIDGE BUILDING TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. ONLY THE UKMET DEPICTS A MORE PRONOUNCED WEAKNESS SUGGESTING A MORE POLEWARD TRACK. THE FORECAST TRACK AGREES WITH THE GUNS/GUNA CONSENSUS. JIMENA CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER WARM WATERS (27-28C)...BUT BASED ON THE NAVOCEANO SST ANALYSIS...JIMENA SHOULD SPEND A LITTLE MORE TIME OVER SUB-26C WATERS AS IT MOVES WEST OF 140W. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS THEREFORE LEVELED OFF AT 75 KT AFTER 24 HOURS. THERE IS A POSSIBILTY...HOWEVER...OF FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AFTER 48 HOURS AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES BACK OVER WARMER SSTS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND. IF THE SYSTEM DOES NOT REMAIN ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST TRACK...AND TAKES A TRACK SIMILAR TO THE UKMET MODEL...THE INTENSITY COULD BE WEAKER THAN FORECAST. FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/1500Z 16.8N 136.4W 65 KT 12HR VT 30/0000Z 17.4N 138.4W 70 KT 24HR VT 30/1200Z 17.8N 141.2W 75 KT 36HR VT 31/0000Z 17.9N 144.2W 75 KT 48HR VT 31/1200Z 17.9N 147.4W 75 KT 72HR VT 01/1200Z 18.0N 153.0W 75 KT 96HR VT 02/1200Z 18.0N 158.0W 70 KT 120HR VT 03/1200Z 18.0N 162.0W 70 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC