ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT SAT AUG 23 2003 SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS STRENGTHENED AND IS NOW A TROPICAL STORM. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 12Z WERE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB AND 35 KT FROM AFWA. THE EARLIER PARTLY- EXPOSED CENTER IS NO LONGER APPARENT...AND GOOD BANDING HAS DEVELOPED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. FIRST VISIBLE IMAGES SHOW ROTATING OVERSHOOTING TOPS. THE LOCATION OF THIS APPARENT CENTER IS NOT IN REAL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EARLIER POSITIONS...BUT IF THE CENTER IS THERE THEN THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT IS TOO LOW. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 310/05...BUT THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER AND HENCE THE MOTION. IGNACIO IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS ANCHORED IN CENTRAL MEXICO...AND THE CYCLONE NOW SEEMS TO BE RESPONDING TO THIS AS INDICATED BY THE RECENT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. THE NOGAPS AND GFNI TAKE IGNACIO ALMOST DUE NORTHWARD...WHILE MOST OF THE REMAINING GUIDANCE IS NEAR OR JUST OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE UKMET HAS A TRACK ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE PENINSULA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE GFS...GFDL...AND UKMET MODELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ALSO A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS. THE RECENT MARKED IMPROVEMENT IN STRUCTURE SUGGESTS THAT IGNACIO WILL BE STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST HAS HAD TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD. THERE IS CURRENTLY NO EVIDENCE OF THE NORTHERLY SHEAR OBSERVED EARLIER. AS LONG AS IGNACIO CONTINUES ON A NORTHWESTERLY TRACK IT SHOULD AVOID THE NORTHERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MEXICO. IGNACIO IS A SMALL SYSTEM OVER VERY WARM WATER...AND IT IS NOT INCONCIEVABLE THAT IT COULD REACH HURRICANE STATUS PRIOR TO LANDFALL. SHOULD THE RECENT DEVELOPMENT TREND CONTINUE THEN A SHORT-FUSED HURRICANE WARNING MIGHT BE REQUIRED IN A FEW HOURS. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/1500Z 21.8N 108.5W 40 KT 12HR VT 24/0000Z 22.3N 109.1W 45 KT 24HR VT 24/1200Z 23.2N 110.0W 55 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 25/0000Z 24.0N 111.0W 45 KT...ALONG THE COAST 48HR VT 25/1200Z 24.5N 111.8W 35 KT...ALONG THE COAST 72HR VT 26/1200Z 25.5N 113.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 27/1200Z 26.5N 114.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC