ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA TROPICAL DEPRESSION HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 2 PM PDT TUE AUG 12 2003 CORRECTED FOR 48HR FORECAST...CHANGED REMNANT LOW TO DISSIPATED CONVECTION ON THE EAST-SOUTHEAST SIDE OF HILDA HAS CEASED PROGRESSING TOWARDS THE CENTER SINCE THIS MORNING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 25 KNOTS BASED ON QUIKSCAT DATA AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH SAB AND TAFB. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANALYSES INDICATE PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...ON THE ORDER OF 25-26C. THIS...ALONG WITH THE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS...SHOULD LEAD TO CONTINUED WEAKENING. HILDA SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 24 HOURS. THE MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE THE DISSIPATION OF ITS LOW-LEVEL CENTER WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MOTION OVER THE PAST TWENTY-FOUR HOURS HAS BEEN RELATIVELY CONSTANT AT 280/12. HILDA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ALONG THIS TRACK PASSING SOUTH OF A LARGE WARM CORE ANTICYCLONE CURRENTLY NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE FORECAST USES A BLEND OF CONTINUITY...THE GFS...AND THE UKMET WHICH INDICATE A CONTINUED FORWARD MOTION TOWARDS THE WEST AT 12 KNOTS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE CYCLONE COULD ACCELERATE AFTER 24 HOURS...BUT LITTLE SHOULD REMAIN OF HILDA BY THAT TIME. FORECASTER CLARK/ROTH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/2100Z 19.1N 129.2W 25 KT 12HR VT 13/0600Z 19.4N 131.2W 20 KT...DISSIPATING 24HR VT 13/1800Z 19.8N 133.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 14/0600Z 20.2N 136.1W 15 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC