ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT MON AUG 11 2003 A QUIKSCAT PASS NEAR 03Z SHOWED WINDS STILL VERY CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...BUT THE CONVECTION HAS DECREASED SINCE THEN. GUILLERMO IS NOW GENERATING JUST A FEW INTERMITTENT PUFFS OF CONVECTION. THE CYCLONE REMAINS UNDER WESTERLY SHEAR WHICH IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO AN INCREASINGLY COOLER AND MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. GUILLERMO IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN A DAY OR SO. ALTHOUGH FORECAST POSITIONS ARE GIVEN OUT TO 120 HOURS...I DO NOT REALLY EXPECT THE CIRCULATION TO PERSIST THAT LONG. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/12. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED NORTHWARD AND SLOWER TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE SHALLOW BAM GUIDANCE. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/0900Z 15.8N 131.2W 30 KT 12HR VT 11/1800Z 15.9N 133.0W 25 KT 24HR VT 12/0600Z 16.0N 135.4W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 12/1800Z 16.2N 137.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 13/0600Z 16.5N 140.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 14/0600Z 17.0N 144.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 15/0600Z 17.5N 148.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 16/0600Z 18.0N 152.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC