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Tropical Storm GUILLERMO (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SUN AUG 10 2003
 
GUILLERMO CONTINUES TO LOOK UNIMPRESSIVE ON INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WITH LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE. DVORAK NUMBERS ARE COMING DOWN...WITH A 2.0/3.0 FROM
TAFB AND A 1.5/2.0 FROM SAB. THE LAST TWO QUIKSCAT PASSES MISSED
THE CYCLONE. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT BUT MAY
STILL BE A BIT HIGH. SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES...AND A
MID-LEVEL VORTEX IN THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CAN BE SEEN MOVING AWAY
FROM GUILLERMO TO THE NORTHWEST.  

THE MOTION HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSTANT OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS...ABOUT
265/12.  GUILLERMO REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT
IS PROVIDING A BASIC WESTWARD STEERING CURRENT...AND THIS SHOULD
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  COMPLICATING THE TRACK
FORECAST IS TROPICAL STORM HILDA TO THE EAST AND A DEVELOPING
DISTURBANCE TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GUILLERMO.  THERE IS NOT MUCH
CONSISTENCY AMONG THE GFS...UKMET...AND NOGAPS ABOUT HOW THESE
THREE SYSTEMS WILL INTERACT.  THE GFS WEAKENS GUILLERMO AND BRINGS
ITS REMNANTS AROUND THE NORTH OF THE DISTURBANCE...WHILE THE UKMET
AND NOGAPS KEEP GUILLERMO AS THE DOMINANT CYCLONE.  WHILE GUILLERMO
IS UNDER SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR NOW...THERE IS DEVELOPING OUTFLOW FROM
THE WESTERN DISTURBANCE THAT MAY REVERSE THE UPPER FLOW WITHIN THE
NEXT 24-36 HOURS.  IF THAT OCCURS...THEN GUILLERMO IS LIKELY TO
BECOME A WEAK SYSTEM AND MOVE WITH THE SHALLOW FLOW AS SUGGESTED BY
THE GFS AND THE SHALLOW BAM.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST EARLY THROUGH 36 HOURS...THEN IS A
LITTLE FASTER THEREAFTER. 
 
THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.  WATER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FAVORABLE FOR MODEST
STRENGTHENING BUT IT IS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
WILL PERMIT MUCH DEVELOPMENT.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      10/1500Z 15.3N 127.5W    40 KT
 12HR VT     11/0000Z 15.1N 129.4W    40 KT
 24HR VT     11/1200Z 15.2N 131.8W    40 KT
 36HR VT     12/0000Z 15.2N 134.2W    40 KT
 48HR VT     12/1200Z 15.2N 137.0W    35 KT
 72HR VT     13/1200Z 15.0N 143.0W    35 KT
 96HR VT     14/1200Z 15.0N 148.0W    35 KT
120HR VT     15/1200Z 15.0N 153.0W    35 KT
 
 
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