ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT SAT JUL 12 2003 THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS NOT QUITE AS IMPRESSIVE AS IT WAS 12 HOURS AGO...BUT ENRIQUE REMAINS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM AS INDICATED BY A SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.5...OR 55 KT...FROM ALL THREE SATELLITE AGENCIES. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS UNRESTRICTED AND CONTINUES TO IMPROVE. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/14 AS ENRIQUE HAS CONTINUED ITS SHARP NORTHWESTWARD JOG. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THIS RECENT NORTHWESTWARD JOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST MUCH LONGER AND IT MAY BE PRIMARILY THE RESULT OF RE-ORGANIZATION OF THE INNER-CORE CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. IN FACT...SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS SUGGESTS THAT THE CYCLONE MAY BE MAKING MORE OF A WESTWARD TURN ALREADY. NEARLY ALL OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE STILL INSIST ON TAKING THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AND THEN TURNING IT WESTWARD AFTER THAT. HOWEVER...THERE IS NOT AS SPREAD AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS AND ENRIQUE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER THE GENERAL EASTERLY STEERING FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IS NOW WITHIN THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE AND IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK IN ORDER TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE NORTHERLY INITIAL POSITION. TIME IS QUICKLY RUNNING OUT FOR ENRIQUE TO BECOME THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE 2003 SEASON IN THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC BASIN. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY NEARING 26C SSTS AND THE WATER GETS PROGRESSIVELY COLDER WEST OF ITS CURRENT POSITION. SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST DATA WAS UNAVAILABLE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...SO THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE THE PREVIOUS SHIPS OUTPUT...THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST...AND SHIFOR. IT IS STILL POSSIBLE THAT ENRIQUE COULD REACH MINIMAL HURRICANE STRENGTH IN THE NEXT 6 TO PERHAPS 12 HOURS BEFORE IT REACHES MUCH COOLER WATER... AFTER WHICH STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO OCCUR. FORECASTER STEWART/JARVINEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/0900Z 16.5N 113.9W 55 KT 12HR VT 12/1800Z 17.3N 115.6W 60 KT 24HR VT 13/0600Z 18.1N 118.0W 55 KT 36HR VT 13/1800Z 18.5N 120.5W 45 KT 48HR VT 14/0600Z 18.8N 123.0W 35 KT 72HR VT 15/0600Z 19.0N 128.0W 30 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 16/0600Z 19.0N 133.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 17/0600Z 19.0N 139.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC