ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT SUN JUL 06 2003 THE LOW-CLOUD CENTER BECAME EXPOSED A FEW HOURS AGO...AS DOLORES CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR. DEEP CONVECTION ALSO DIMINISHED...HOWEVER THIS IS PROBABLY A DIURNAL FLUCTUATION. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 30 KT TO 45 KT. THE SYSTEM IS ESTIMATED TO BE OF MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY....ALTHOUGH THIS IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THERE IS A RATHER STABLE AIR MASS TO THE NORTH OF DOLORES AS INDICATED BY THE PRESENCE OF BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS. THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS DECREASING SHEAR BUT CALLS FOR NEGLIGIBLE STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...WITH THE MAIN INHIBITING FACTOR BEING THE PRESENCE OF THE STABLE AIR MASS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST MAINTAINS TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH FOR A DAY OR SO FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING OVER SUB-25 DEG C SSTS. AS THE EXPOSED CENTER BECAME CLEAR...IT WAS NECESSARY TO ADJUST THE TRACK EVEN FARTHER TO THE NORTH. INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 310/8. DOLORES IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED BY THE FLOW ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BASED ON THE MORE NORTHWARD AND SLOWER INITIAL MOTION...THE NHC FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS...EXCEPT FOR THE BETA ADVECTION AND BAROTROPIC MODELS WHICH ARE FASTER AND TURN THE CYCLONE TO THE NORTH LATER IN THE PERIOD. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/0300Z 16.3N 118.9W 35 KT 12HR VT 07/1200Z 16.8N 120.0W 35 KT 24HR VT 08/0000Z 17.4N 121.7W 35 KT 36HR VT 08/1200Z 18.0N 123.5W 35 KT 48HR VT 09/0000Z 18.5N 125.3W 30 KT 72HR VT 10/0000Z 19.5N 129.0W 30 KT 96HR VT 11/0000Z 20.5N 132.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 12/0000Z 21.5N 136.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC