ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT WED JUN 18 2003 ON SATELLITE IMAGES...THE ORGANIZATION OF THE STORM HAS DETERIORATED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE CLOUD PATTERN IS NOW RATHER AMORPHOUS WITH LITTLE EVIDENCE OF BANDING FEATURES...AND CONVECTIVE TOPS HAVE WARMED NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION. EASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE SYSTEM. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT MODERATE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR... ASSOCIATED WITH A 200 MB ANTICYCLONE OVER EASTERN MEXICO...WILL PERSIST OVER BLANCA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND AFWA. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THIS ADVISORY IS A LITTLE BELOW THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...BLANCA IS EXPECTED TO CROSS OVER A SIGNIFICANT SST GRADIENT AND ENTER AN AREA OF COOLER THAN NORMAL WATERS. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE APPARENT MOTION AS STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN ILL-DEFINED. A VERY WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE NORTH OF BLANCA WHICH WOULD INDUCE A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...WITH A MORE WESTWARD TRACK BY DAYS 4 AND 5 FOLLOWING THE LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW. THIS OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE. SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND QUIKSCAT DATA INDICATE THAT BLANCA IS A RATHER SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/0900Z 16.6N 103.8W 45 KT 12HR VT 18/1800Z 16.8N 104.2W 50 KT 24HR VT 19/0600Z 17.0N 104.7W 55 KT 36HR VT 19/1800Z 17.2N 105.2W 60 KT 48HR VT 20/0600Z 17.4N 105.8W 60 KT 72HR VT 21/0600Z 17.8N 107.0W 50 KT 96HR VT 22/0600Z 18.0N 108.5W 45 KT 120HR VT 23/0600Z 18.0N 110.0W 30 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:55 UTC