ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT SAT MAY 24 2003 ANDRES CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN DEEP CONVECTION...WITH TOPS COLDER THAN -80C...NEAR A HARD-TO-FIND CENTER OF CIRCULATION. HOWEVER... WESTERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS CONFINING THE CONVECTION TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE. THE LATEST DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA AGREE ON 35 KT...AND THAT REMAINS THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE PAST FEW QUIKSCAT PASSES HAVE MISSED ANDRES...BUT THE UPCOMING ONE SHOULD BE A HIT AND MIGHT SHED SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT ON THE INTENSITY. ANDRES IS CROSSING THE 26C SST ISOTHERM...AND FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE PASSING UNDER STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE CURRENT STRONG CONVECTIVE BURST MAY THEREFORE BE THE LAST SIGNIFICANT ONE...AND ANDRES IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GENEROUSLY CARRIES A CIRCULATION FOR 96 HOURS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE CYCLONE... CURRENTLY 15 KT...THE CIRCULATION COULD EASILY OPEN UP INTO A WAVE BEFORE THEN. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/15. AS THE CONVECTION DIMINISHES OVER COOLER WATERS...ANDRES SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A SLIGHT TURN TO THE WEST AFTER 12 HOURS AND FOLLOWS THE SPEED OF THE SHALLOW LAYER BAM MODEL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/1500Z 14.2N 131.3W 35 KT 12HR VT 25/0000Z 14.7N 133.6W 30 KT 24HR VT 25/1200Z 14.9N 136.6W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 26/0000Z 15.0N 139.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 26/1200Z 15.0N 142.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 27/1200Z 15.0N 147.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 28/1200Z 15.0N 150.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:55 UTC