ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT THU MAY 22 2003 ANDRES IS STILL FIGHTING THE SHEAR. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER CONTINUES TO BE LOCATED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION AS INDICATED BY THE LATEST MICROWAVE DATA AND A FIRST VISIBLE IMAGE. BASED ON DVORAK T-NUMBERS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 40 KNOTS. IT IS DIFFICULT TO FORECAST STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THE CURRENT CLOUD PATTERN AND WITH THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WINDS HEADING FOR ANDRES. IN FACT...THE GFS IS NOW FORECASTING UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER ANDRES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE THE MODEL DEVELOPS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CYCLONE. ANDRES THEN HAS THE CHANCE TO STRENGTHEN WITHIN THE 36 AND 48 HOUR PERIOD. THEREAFTER... REGARDLESS OF SHEAR... ANDRES SHOULD BE APPROACHING COOLER WATER AND WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN. ANDRES IS RIGHT ON COURSE...MOVING 280 DEGREES AT 16 KNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A PERSISTENT STRONG DEEP LAYER MEAN ANTICYCLONE. A GRADUAL TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE REACHES THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE. BECAUSE THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE WELL ESTABLISHED...THE NHC TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/1500Z 11.3N 117.7W 40 KT 12HR VT 23/0000Z 11.8N 120.2W 40 KT 24HR VT 23/1200Z 12.5N 123.0W 40 KT 36HR VT 24/0000Z 13.0N 125.5W 50 KT 48HR VT 24/1200Z 14.0N 128.0W 50 KT 72HR VT 25/1200Z 15.0N 132.5W 40 KT 96HR VT 26/1200Z 16.0N 136.5W 30 KT 120HR VT 27/1200Z 17.0N 140.0W 20 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:55 UTC