ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT TUE MAY 20 2003 INFRARED IMAGES SHOW A PERSISTENT AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH SOME SYMMETRY AND BANDING...RESULTING IN DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB. THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM ANDRES ON THIS BASIS. 0936Z TRMM PASS SUGGESTS THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD CENTER IS DISPLACED NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. FIRST VISIBLE IMAGE DOES NOT HELP MUCH IN LOCATING LOW LEVEL CENTER. A VERY RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS AN EAST/WEST ELONGATED CENTER TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION ALONG WITH AN UNCONTAMINATED 40 KT SURFACE WIND AND A COUPLE OF 60-65 KT FLAGGED RAIN-CONTAMINATED SURFACE WINDS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/09. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTING TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM FOR SEVERAL DAYS AND TRACK GUIDANCE VARIES BETWEEN DUE WESTWARD AND WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE FORWARD MOTION FROM THE GFDL MODEL IS RATHER SLOW WHILE THE GFS MODEL IS CONSIDERABLY FASTER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE GLOBAL MODELS. THE GFDL AGGRESSIVELY BRINGS THE WIND SPEED TO 78 KT IN 60 HOURS AND THE SHIPS BRINGS IT TO 60 KT...OVER WARM SSTS AND WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR. THE GFS...NOGAPS...AND UKMET MODELS FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY FOR 120 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS TO 55 KT BY 36 HOURS FOLLOWING THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND SHIPS. FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/1500Z 9.9N 105.7W 35 KT 12HR VT 21/0000Z 10.0N 107.2W 40 KT 24HR VT 21/1200Z 10.5N 109.5W 50 KT 36HR VT 22/0000Z 11.2N 111.8W 55 KT 48HR VT 22/1200Z 11.8N 114.5W 55 KT 72HR VT 23/1200Z 13.0N 119.5W 55 KT 96HR VT 24/1200Z 14.0N 123.0W 45 KT 120HR VT 25/1200Z 15.0N 127.0W 35 KT NNNN
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