ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT THU DEC 04 2003 SATELLITE DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA HAS DEVELOPED ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH BANDING FEATURES AND APPEARS TO HAVE A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION. THEREFORE...THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE GENESIS OF THIS OFF-SEASON SYSTEM HAS BEEN SUCCESSFULLY FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE CYCLONE COULD BE A TROPICAL STORM. HOWEVER...WE WOULD RATHER WAIT UNTIL THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE CHECKS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON TO UPGRADE THE SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION SO ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED. BECAUSE THE CYCLONE IS IN ITS FORMATIVE STAGE...THE INITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 025/09. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND A STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THEREFORE...THE DEPRESSION SHOULD MOVE BETWEEN THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 72 HOURS OVER THE ATLANTIC. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH NHC GUIDANCE AND GLOBAL MODELS. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/1500Z 13.3N 76.3W 30 KT 12HR VT 05/0000Z 14.7N 75.5W 35 KT 24HR VT 05/1200Z 17.5N 74.7W 40 KT 36HR VT 06/0000Z 21.0N 73.5W 40 KT 48HR VT 06/1200Z 25.0N 70.5W 40 KT 72HR VT 07/1200Z 38.0N 60.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 08/1200Z...EXTRATROPICAL NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:02 UTC