ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 34 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM EST TUE OCT 21 2003 NICHOLAS STUBBORNLY REFUSES TO WEAKEN. IN SPITE OF STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...THE CENTER REMAINS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION TO SUPPORT WINDS NEAR 40 KT. APPARENTLY THE SHEAR IS STILL NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY DISRUPT THE SYSTEM. GIVEN THE STORM'S SURVIVAL SKILLS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PRESUMES THAT IT WILL BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO. HOWEVER IN 48 HOURS THE GFS INDICATES THAT SHEAR WILL BE APPROACHING 50 KT AND...IF THAT VERIFIES...NICHOLAS SHOULD BE WEAKENING OR DISSIPATING. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OR ITS REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH...OR BE ABSORBED BY...AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW. ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION IS 290/8. NICHOLAS IS ON THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE...AND SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THIS HIGH. THEN THE FLOW BETWEEN A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE HIGH SHOULD CARRY THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NORTHWARD AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED. THE NHC FORECAST IS SLOWER AND A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THIS IS SIMILAR TO...ALBEIT A LITTLE FASTER THAN...THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/0300Z 19.0N 52.9W 40 KT 12HR VT 22/1200Z 19.7N 54.0W 40 KT 24HR VT 23/0000Z 21.3N 54.6W 40 KT 36HR VT 23/1200Z 23.5N 55.0W 35 KT 48HR VT 24/0000Z 26.5N 55.0W 30 KT 72HR VT 25/0000Z 32.0N 55.0W 30 KT 96HR VT 26/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:01 UTC