ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION MINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2003 MINDY REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED...AS INDICATED BY THE LACK OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE BROAD LOW-LEVEL CENTER. MID-/UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY SHEAR HAS DISPLACED THE CONVECTION MORE THAN 60 NMI EAST OF THE CENTER...AND SATELITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED ACCORDINGLY DOWN TO T1.5/25 KT. HOWEVER...AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATED 25 KT UNCONTAMINATED WINDS AND 35 KT RAIN-CONTAMINATED WINDS...SO I HAVE DECIDED TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND KEEP MINDY AT A GENEROUS 30-KT INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 090/09. MINDY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW IN ADVANCE OF A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE THROUGH THAT IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO MOVE EAST TO NORTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE LONE EXCEPTION IS THE NOGAPS MODEL WHICH TAKES MINDY QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION AND DEVELOPS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL STORM NEAR BERMUDA IN 36-48 HOURS. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS NOT INDICATING ANY SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION IN THE FLOW PATTERN TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST OF MINDY...SO THE NOGAPS SOLUTION WAS DISCOUNTED. THE REST OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON KEEPING MINDY MOVING EASTWARD OR EAST-NORTHWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE MEDIUM AND DEEP BAM MODELS...AND THE GFS MODEL. MINDY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER AT LEAST 20 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION FROM OCCURRING. AFTER THAT...IF THE CYCLONE STILL EXISTS...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST BY ALL THE MODELS TO WEAKEN AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MINDY COULD REACH MINIMAL TROPICAL STRENGTH AGAIN. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR MID-LEVEL AIR FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST WOULD LIKELY PREVENT THE CYCLONE FROM BECOMING MUCH MORE THAN A 35-40 KT SYSTEM...AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL. THE THREAT TO BERMUDA HAS BEEN MINIMIZED SINCE MINDY REMAINS A WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE...IS CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD...AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD AND REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE ISLAND. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/0900Z 25.7N 69.8W 30 KT 12HR VT 13/1800Z 25.8N 68.4W 30 KT 24HR VT 14/0600Z 25.9N 66.4W 30 KT 36HR VT 14/1800Z 26.2N 64.4W 30 KT 48HR VT 15/0600Z 26.9N 62.3W 30 KT 72HR VT 16/0600Z 29.0N 58.0W 30 KT 96HR VT 17/0600Z 30.0N 55.0W 30 KT 120HR VT 18/0600Z 30.5N 51.0W 30 KT NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:00 UTC