ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM LARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SUN OCT 05 2003 SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT LARRY IS FINALLY INLAND...ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN NO RECON OR SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING TO CONFIRM THAT. AN AIRCRAFT IS ENROUTE TO THE CYCLONE AND WILL BE IN THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE PROBABLY ONLY OCCURRING OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH LARRY WILL BE THE LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SLOW-MOVING STORM. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 180/2...AND LARRY IS EXPECTED TO TAKE A DAY OR MORE TO CROSS OVER INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC AS IT MOVES AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS A BLEND OF THE GFDL AND GFS SOLUTIONS. OTHER GUIDANCE...SUCH AS THE NOGAPS AND THE UKMET...ARE SLOWER. SHOULD LARRY REMAIN A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING ITS PASSAGE OVER MEXICO INTO THE PACIFIC...IT WOULD RETAIN ITS NAME. HOWEVER...A NEW NAME WOULD BE GIVEN IF THE SURFACE CIRCULATION DISSIPATES AND THEN REGENERATES IN THE PACIFIC. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/1500Z 18.3N 93.5W 45 KT...INLAND 12HR VT 06/0000Z 17.7N 93.5W 30 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 06/1200Z 16.9N 93.7W 20 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 07/0000Z 16.0N 94.0W 25 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 07/1200Z 15.5N 95.0W 30 KT...OVER PACIFIC WATERS 72HR VT 08/1200Z 15.0N 96.5W 30 KT 96HR VT 09/1200Z 15.5N 98.0W 30 KT 120HR VT 10/1200Z 16.0N 100.0W 30 KT NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:00 UTC