ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM LARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT FRI OCT 03 2003 THE LATEST REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SHOW THAT LARRY HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN STRENGTH. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN A LITTLE TO 997 MB...WHILE THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 850 MB WERE 54 KT IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE AIRCRAFT HAS NOT YET SAMPLED THE WIND FIELD SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER SINCE A LARGE CONVECTIVE BURST DEVELOPED THERE...SO STRONGER WINDS MAY YET BE FOUND. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A VERY UNCERTAIN 235/2. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY...AS LARRY REMAINS TRAPPED IN AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING CURRENTS AND IS LIKELY TO STAY THAT WAY FOR THE NEXT 3-5 DAYS. MOST DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE CALLS FOR A SLOW MOTION BETWEEN SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO CALL FOR A SLOW SOUTHWARD DRIFT. THIS MOTION SHOULD BE RATHER UNSTEADY...WITH JUMPS IN THE POSITION OF THE CENTER SUCH AS THE ONE JUST SEEN ON THE ALVARADO MEXICO RADAR. ONE POSSIBLE COMPLICATING FACTOR IS A MID-LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR 23N91W. IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL WHAT EFFECT...IF ANY...THIS MIGHT HAVE ON LARRY. THE RECENT CONVECTIVE BURST NOTWITHSTANDING...LARRY CONTINUES TO BE SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED AND UNDER LIGHT/MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR. THIS SHOULD SLOW...BUT LIKELY NOT STOP...DEVELOPMENT. AS THE STORM DRIFTS CLOSER TO THE COAST...AN INCREASING PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION WILL BE OVER LAND...AND THIS SHOULD ACT AS AN ADDITIONAL NEGATIVE FACTOR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR LARRY TO REACH 60 KT IN 48 HR AND MAINTAIN THAT INTENSITY UNTIL LANDFALL. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/1500Z 20.0N 94.6W 50 KT 12HR VT 04/0000Z 19.7N 94.7W 50 KT 24HR VT 04/1200Z 19.5N 94.7W 55 KT 36HR VT 05/0000Z 19.3N 94.7W 55 KT 48HR VT 05/1200Z 19.0N 94.7W 60 KT 72HR VT 06/1200Z 18.5N 94.7W 60 KT 96HR VT 07/1200Z 18.0N 95.0W 35 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 08/1200Z 17.5N 95.5W 25 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:59 UTC