ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM LARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT WED OCT 01 2003 SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT LARRY HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...ALTHOUGH SOME BANDING HAS DEVELOPED WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE MAIN CONVECTION IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE BROAD CENTER OF THE CYCLONE. AN ANTICYCLONE IS WELL ESTABLISHED OVER LARRY AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT. THE GFDL FORECASTS LARRY TO HURRICANE STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT GIVEN THE POOR ORGANIZATION OF THE INNER CORE I AM NOT WILLING TO GO THAT FAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IN LINE WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. IF LARRY REMAINS STATIONARY FOR LONG THEN UPWELLING COULD BECOME A FACTOR IN LIMITING DEVELOPMENT. IF ANYTHING...THE CENTER MAY HAVE DRIFTED A LITTLE BIT WEST OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT I WILL KEEP THE CENTER STATIONARY TILL A MOTION BECOMES MORE CLEAR. LARRY IS CURRENTLY TRAPPED IN A WEAK STEERING FLOW BETWEEN MID-LEVEL RIDGES TO ITS EAST AND WEST. A STRONG MID-LEVEL WESTERLY CURRENT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT IT IS NOT CLEAR THAT LARRY WILL EVER FEEL ITS INFLUENCE. THE GFDL...GFS...AND NOGAPS SUGGEST THAT LARRY WILL DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE WESTERN RIDGE...WHILE THE CANADIAN AND ETA MODELS ERODE THE WESTERN RIDGE AND TAKE THE CYCLONE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD. SHOULD LARRY BEGIN TO TAKE A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK THAN EXPECTED...THEN IT COULD GET CAUGHT IN THE WESTERLY CURRENT AND ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD...WELL AWAY FROM THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK AND INTERESTS THROUGHOUT THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LARRY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/0300Z 21.0N 93.5W 45 KT 12HR VT 02/1200Z 21.0N 93.5W 45 KT 24HR VT 03/0000Z 21.0N 93.5W 50 KT 36HR VT 03/1200Z 21.0N 93.5W 55 KT 48HR VT 04/0000Z 21.0N 93.5W 55 KT 72HR VT 05/0000Z 21.0N 93.5W 60 KT 96HR VT 06/0000Z 21.0N 94.5W 60 KT 120HR VT 07/0000Z 21.5N 95.0W 60 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:59 UTC