ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 38 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SAT OCT 04 2003 THE INITIAL MOTION HAS SLOWED TO 280/07. KATE IS NEARING THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN ANCHORED IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC FOR QUITE SOME TIME. KATE IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWARD IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...AND IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE ITS FORWARD SPEED AS IT ENTERS THE STRONG FLOW BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND AN APPROACHING TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND TO A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION THAT CONSTITUTES THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAS PARTIALLY ERODED ON THE WEST SIDE...PERHAPS FROM WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR... AND SATELLITE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 77/90 KNOTS FROM SAB/TAFB. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS DECREASED TO 100 KNOTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS...WITH A FASTER RATE OF WEAKENING EXPECTED AFTER THAT AS SSTS GET COLD AND VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES. THE GFS MODEL SHOWS KATE AS AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM NEAR GREAT BRITAIN IN 120 HOURS. FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/0300Z 30.6N 55.1W 100 KT 12HR VT 05/1200Z 31.3N 56.3W 95 KT 24HR VT 06/0000Z 33.6N 57.2W 90 KT 36HR VT 06/1200Z 37.1N 56.7W 85 KT 48HR VT 07/0000Z 42.0N 54.0W 70 KT 72HR VT 08/0000Z 53.0N 43.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 09/0000Z 60.0N 25.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 10/0000Z 62.5N 5.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:00 UTC