ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 30 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT THU OCT 02 2003 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 255/10. ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT KATE MOVING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC. AN APPROACHING TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE KATE NORTH TO NORTHEASTWARD BY DAY 4 AND 5. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND AGREES WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE...EXCEPT THAT IT IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE GUIDANCE AFTER DAY 4. KATE MAY WELL BE EXTRATROPICAL BY DAY 5. THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE INTENSITY OR INTENSITY FORECAST. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN IN THE 75 TO 90 KNOT RANGE AS KATE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A WELL-DEFINED EYE. THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES STRENGTHENING TO ABOUT 90 KNOTS IN 24 HOURS AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/0300Z 29.5N 46.3W 80 KT 12HR VT 03/1200Z 29.4N 47.9W 85 KT 24HR VT 04/0000Z 29.8N 50.2W 90 KT 36HR VT 04/1200Z 30.1N 52.5W 90 KT 48HR VT 05/0000Z 31.0N 54.7W 90 KT 72HR VT 06/0000Z 34.8N 57.2W 85 KT 96HR VT 07/0000Z 43.0N 56.0W 75 KT 120HR VT 08/0000Z 51.0N 49.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL NNNN
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