ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT THU OCT 02 2003 KATE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE A WELL- DEFINED 20 NM WIDE EYE AND GRADUALLY COOLING CONVETIVE TOPS IN THE EYEWALL. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM TAFB AND AFWA...AND 90 KT FROM SAB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 80 KT...WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH OBJECTIVE INFRARED SATELLITE ESTIMATES. THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS FAIR TO GOOD IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND POOR ELSEWHERE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 255/9. KATE IS CURRENTLY BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 27N45W. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE HURRICANE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 36-48 HR. ALL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS AS DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE FORECAST IS MORE UNCERTAIN AFTER 48 HR AS KATE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE WESTERLIES AT THE WESTERN END OF THE RIDGE. ALL GUIDANCE FORECASTS A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH...BUT THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS IN WHEN AND HOW FAST. THIS PART OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS A COMPROMISE SPEED-WISE BETWEEN THE FASTER UKMET AND THE SLOWER GFS...AND DIRECTION-WISE BETWEEN FARTHER WEST NOGAPS AND THE FARTHER EAST GFS...UKMET... AND GFDL KATE REMAINS WELL-ORGANIZED...OVER WARM WATER...AND IN A LIGHT-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THE FAVORABLE CONDITION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR 36-48 HR. THUS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING DURING THAT TIME...AND THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT IT COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE THAT KATE SHOULD ENCOUNTER SIGNIFICANT WESTERLY SHEAR LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...SO GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER 48 HR. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/2100Z 29.8N 45.2W 80 KT 12HR VT 03/0600Z 29.7N 46.8W 85 KT 24HR VT 03/1800Z 29.7N 48.9W 90 KT 36HR VT 04/0600Z 30.0N 51.2W 90 KT 48HR VT 04/1800Z 30.5N 53.4W 90 KT 72HR VT 05/1800Z 33.0N 56.5W 85 KT 96HR VT 06/1800Z 37.5N 57.5W 75 KT 120HR VT 07/1800Z 45.0N 54.0W 60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:59 UTC