ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT WED OCT 01 2003 THE EYE OF KATE HAS BEEN BLINKING IN AND OUT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY WARMER THAN -60C. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES...AS WELL AS THE ADVISORY INTENSITY... REMAIN AT 65 KT. THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW TO THE EAST BUT NOT MUCH ELSEWHERE. INTERESTINGLY...A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS DID NOT SHOW ANY HURRICANE FORCE WINDS LIKE THE PASS OF A COUPLE NIGHTS AGO WHEN THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE WAS LESS IMPRESSIVE. KATE CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 245/12...BUT MIGHT BE EVEN LEFT OF THAT OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AGAIN NUDGED SOUTHWARD BUT IS BASICALLY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. KATE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYER ANTICYCLONE CURRENTLY NORTH OF THE HURRICANE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS. THE UKMET HAS A TRACK THAT IS FARTHER NORTH AND MUCH FASTER THAN THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE. WHILE THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OF KATE HAS LITTLE SHEAR...THE HURRICANE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE SCALE UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW. GIVEN THIS PATTERN...IT IS HARD FOR ME TO SEE KATE DEVELOPING STRONG OUTFLOW AND SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT QUITE AS AGRESSIVE AS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. IF KATE CONTINUES TO MOVE FARTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED...THEN INCREASING SSTS WOULD FAVOR A LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/0300Z 30.7N 42.7W 65 KT 12HR VT 02/1200Z 30.2N 44.5W 70 KT 24HR VT 03/0000Z 30.0N 47.0W 75 KT 36HR VT 03/1200Z 30.2N 49.4W 80 KT 48HR VT 04/0000Z 30.5N 51.5W 80 KT 72HR VT 05/0000Z 31.5N 54.5W 75 KT 96HR VT 06/0000Z 34.0N 57.0W 75 KT 120HR VT 07/0000Z 37.5N 58.5W 70 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:59 UTC