ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2003 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 045/15. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH CAUSING DECELERATION AND A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE FORECAST TRACK CLOSELY FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE. DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTS NEAR AND EAST OF THE CENTER BUT IT IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45/55/55 KT FROM AFGWC/TAFB/SAB AND THE OFFICIAL ESTIMATE FOR 03Z REMAINS AT 50 KNOTS. THE SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT FAVOR STRENGTHENING WITH OVER 30 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS ALSO FOR LITTLE CHANGE. ONLY THE GFDL MODEL FORECASTS ANY SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING AND THIS IS DISCOUNTED BECAUSE OF THE LARGE SHEAR VALUE. FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/0300Z 26.7N 40.7W 50 KT 12HR VT 29/1200Z 28.0N 39.2W 50 KT 24HR VT 30/0000Z 29.3N 37.5W 55 KT 36HR VT 30/1200Z 30.2N 36.7W 55 KT 48HR VT 01/0000Z 31.0N 36.7W 55 KT 72HR VT 02/0000Z 31.5N 38.0W 55 KT 96HR VT 03/0000Z 32.0N 39.5W 50 KT 120HR VT 04/0000Z 33.0N 42.0W 45 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:59 UTC