ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2003 VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A FAIRLY WELL-ORGANIZED CLOUD PATTERN AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UP SLIGHTLY. HOWEVER...THE STRONGEST CONVECTIVE BAND IS CURRENTLY WELL TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER AND THE OVERALL PATTERN ON IR IMAGERY IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS IT WAS OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 50 KT. CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS A 0913Z SSMI PASS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF KATE IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ADJUSTED TO 020/9. A GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS KATE IS STEERED BY A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS NORTH. AFTER THAT...A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND THIS WILL PUT THE BRAKES ON ANY NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT BY 72 HOURS. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE NOW AGREES IN BUILDING THIS STRONG ANTICYCLONE AND STEERING KATE ON A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AFTER 72 HOURS. THE UKMET IS THE SOLE OUTLIER AND CONTINUES TO MOVE THE SYSTEM TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST TOWARD COOLER WATERS. SHIPS GUIDANCE NO LONGER BRINGS KATE TO A HURRICANE...AND PEAKS THE INTENSITY NEAR 60 KT BETWEEN 36 AND 48 HOURS. THE GFDL...ON THE OTHER HAND...STEADILY INTENSIFIES THE SYSTEM TO 100 KT IN 48 HOURS BUT THIS SEEMS HIGHLY UNLIKELY GIVEN THE CURRENT UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. IN FACT...THE SHIPS GUIDANCE INCREASES THE SHEAR OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS AND SO IT SEEMS THAT ONLY A MODEST STRENGTHENING IS JUSTIFIED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STRENGTHENS KATE TO 60 KT IN 24 HOURS AND MAINTAINS THAT INTENSITY UNTIL 48 HOURS. SLIGHT WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO DECELERATE AND RE-CURVE TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE INTENSITY LEVELING OFF AT 50 KT THROUGH 120 HOURS. IF KATE CAN SURVIVE THIS ENVIRONMENT...IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT SHE COULD CONTINUE ON A WESTWARD COURSE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WELL BEYOND THE 5-DAY FORECAST PERIOD. FORECASTER PASCH/BERG FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/1500Z 24.5N 43.3W 50 KT 12HR VT 29/0000Z 25.4N 42.6W 55 KT 24HR VT 29/1200Z 26.8N 41.2W 60 KT 36HR VT 30/0000Z 28.0N 39.6W 60 KT 48HR VT 30/1200Z 29.0N 38.2W 60 KT 72HR VT 01/1200Z 30.0N 37.5W 55 KT 96HR VT 02/1200Z 31.0N 37.5W 50 KT 120HR VT 03/1200Z 32.0N 38.5W 50 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:59 UTC