ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT FRI SEP 26 2003 POSITION FIXES FROM THE VARIOUS SATELLITE CENTERS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN IS PROGRESSIVELY MORE NORTHWARD FROM PREVIOUS ESTIMATES ALTOUGH THE CENTER LOCATION IS STILL DIFFICULT TO DISCERN. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND AWFA REMAIN AT 30 KT. HOWEVER...VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES DEVELOPING BANDING FEATURES AND GOOD OUTFLOW SUCH THAT THE DEPRESSION COULD REACH TROPICAL STORM FORCE LATER TODAY. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/13. GENERAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE THUS FAR HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY MOVING THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH LOCATED WEST OF THE SYSTEM. UW CIMSS ENVIRONMENTAL STEERING PRODUCTS ALSO CONCUR WITH THIS GENERAL MOTION. IN THE MEANTIME THE OFFICIAL TRACK FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE OF GFS AND UKMET AND NOGAPS. THE LAST RUN OF THE GFDL WAS NOT USED IN THE FORECAST BECAUSE IT DISSIPATES THE CYCLONE AFTER 12 HOURS. FORECAST GUIDANCE INTENSITY SHOWS AN INCREASE IN THE WINDS IN THE NEAR TERM AND BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS IN THE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS SEEMS TO BE THE CASE. WITHIN 72 HOURS...SHEAR VALUES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE BUT STILL SOME STRENGTHENING SHOULD OCCUR. FORECASTER AVILA/SISKO FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/1500Z 15.9N 40.7W 30 KT 12HR VT 27/0000Z 17.2N 42.1W 35 KT 24HR VT 27/1200Z 18.9N 44.2W 40 KT 36HR VT 28/0000Z 20.3N 46.0W 45 KT 48HR VT 28/1200Z 21.7N 47.6W 55 KT 72HR VT 29/1200Z 24.1N 49.0W 55 KT 96HR VT 30/1200Z 25.8N 48.3W 55 KT 120HR VT 01/1200Z 27.1N 46.8W 55 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:59 UTC