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Tropical Depression SIXTEEN (Text)

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI SEP 26 2003
 
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN REMAINS DIFFICULT TO
LOCATE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. EARLIER QUIKSCAT AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY
ACTUALLY SUGGEST THAT THE BROAD LOW-LEVEL CENTER MAY BE LOCATED
FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE ADVISORY POSITION IS INDICATING...AND THAT
THE CYCLONE MAY BE MOVING MORE WESTWARD. HOWEVER...I HAVE OPTED TO
MAINTAIN CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK SINCE FIXING A
POSITION IN NIGHTIME SATELLITE IMAGERY ON POORLY ORGANIZED SYSTEMS
IS DIFFICULT AT BEST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 30 KT BASED
ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KT FROM TAFB AND AFWA.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/10. THE LONG TERM TREND IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER OF TD-16 IS LOCATED ON
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE ELONGATED BAND OF CLOUDS AND CONVECTION.
THE ENTIRE ENVELOPE APPEARS TO BE MOVING WEST OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. UNTIL A WELL-DEFINED CENTER BECOMES APPARENT...
THE FUTURE TRACK WILL REMAIN UNCERTAIN. THE RIGHTMOST GFS MODEL
IMMEDIATELY TAKES THE CYCLONE RAPIDLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...WHICH
DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY GIVEN THE PAST AND CURRENT SATELLITE MOTION
TRENDS. THE REST OF THE NHC GUIDANCE IS SLOWER AND QUITE DIVERGENT
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST...WITH MOST STILL INDICATING
RECURVATURE IN 72-96 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY
TO THE LEFT OF AND SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...AND
VERY CLOSE TO THE UKMET AND MEDIUM BAM CONSENSUS. IF TD-16
DEVELOPS/REMAINS FARTHER SOUTH... THEN IT MAY NOT GET FAR ENOUGH
NORTH TO GET PICKED UP BY THE LARGE TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO DIG
SOUTHWESTWARD AND WEAKEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS TO THE NORTH OF
THE CYCLCONE IN 48 TO 72 HOURS.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OT REMAIN ONLY MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR...SO THE SHIPS MODEL
WAS CLOSELY FOLLOWED. HOWEVER...IF THE CYCLONE REMAINS FARTHER
SOUTH THAN FORECAST...THE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE MUCH LESS...AND
MORE STRENGTHENING WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
 
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      26/0900Z 13.0N  40.1W    30 KT
 12HR VT     26/1800Z 14.1N  41.7W    35 KT
 24HR VT     27/0600Z 15.4N  43.8W    40 KT
 36HR VT     27/1800Z 16.5N  45.7W    45 KT
 48HR VT     28/0600Z 17.6N  47.4W    50 KT
 72HR VT     29/0600Z 19.5N  49.5W    55 KT
 96HR VT     30/0600Z 21.0N  50.5W    55 KT
120HR VT     01/0600Z 22.5N  51.0W    55 KT
 
 
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