ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE JUAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2003 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/28 AND THE MOTION FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS IS PROBABLY CLOSER TO 30 KNOTS. THE TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO REMAINS THE SAME...WITH AN APPROACHING TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES ACCELERATING JUAN NORTHWARD. JUAN IS EXPECTED TO BE QUICKLY ABSORBED BY THIS APPROACHING EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. THE 03Z INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 70 KT. THE CENTER PASSED OVER CANADIAN DATA BUOY 44142 BETWEEN 23Z AND 00Z. THE BUOY WIND WENT FROM 090/54 KT AT 23Z TO 210/37 KT AT 00Z AND THE PRESSURE WENT FROM 981 TO 975 MB. THE BOUY WIND SPEED BETWEEN THE TWO HOURS COULD HAVE BEEN AS HIGH AS 60 TO 70 KNOTS. THE BUOY ALSO REPORTED 40 FT WAVES. OVER VERY COLD WATER...JUAN SHOULD CONTINUE TO QUICKLY WEAKEN...BUT WINDS MAY STILL BE NEAR HURRICANE FORCE AS THE CENTER REACHES THE SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA BY AROUND 03Z. WIND AND HEAVY RAIN WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF NOVA SCOTIA AND PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTER. INFORMATION FROM THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTER CAN BE FOUND AT THE FOLLOWING INTERNET ADDRESS: WWW.ATL.EC.GC.CA/WEATHER/HURRICANE/INDEX_E.HTML FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/0300Z 44.5N 63.8W 70 KT 12HR VT 29/1200Z 49.0N 63.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 30/0000Z 58.0N 60.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 30/1200Z 65.0N 55.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 01/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:59 UTC