ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE JUAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2003 THE GFDL MODEL HAD THE CORRECT IDEA ON THE INTENSITY FORECAST. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS OUTSTANDING AND STILL IMPROVING. THE EYE IS DISTINCT AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A WELL-DEFINED AND ROUND CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED TO 5.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE CORRESPONDING TO AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS. THIS INTENSIFICATION HAS COINCIDED WITH A DECREASE IN THE SHEAR AND WITH THE HURRICANE MOVING OVER WARM WATERS. A DRIFTING BUOY NEAR THE EYE MEASURED A SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE OF 81 DEGREES THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...ONLY SMALL FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY TODAY. JUAN SHOULD BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT REACHES THE COOLER WATERS NEAR NOVA SCOTIA. JUAN SHOULD BE CROSSING NOVA SCOTIA WHILE UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. ANOTHER SURPRISE TODAY WAS THAT JUAN MOVED A LITTLE MORE TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED. IN FACT...THE HURRICANE MOVED TOWARD THE NORTHWEST FOR A WHILE TODAY. HOWEVER... STEERING CURRENTS SHOULD BECOME STRONGER AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. JUAN SHOULD THEN INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED AND TURN MORE TO THE NORTH. ON THIS TRACK...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER NOVA SCOTIA LATE SUNDAY. TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE VERY CONSISTENT BRINGING THE CYCLONE OVER NOVA SCOTIA. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/2100Z 35.9N 63.4W 90 KT 12HR VT 28/0600Z 38.0N 64.3W 85 KT 24HR VT 28/1800Z 42.5N 64.5W 70 KT 36HR VT 29/0600Z 48.0N 63.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 29/1800Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:59 UTC