ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT MON SEP 08 2003 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KT AND 30 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB... RESPECTIVELY. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/03. TD-14 IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS AND THEN TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AS A MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD AND WEAKENS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED NORTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. HOWEVER ...GIVEN THAT THE DEPRESSION IS SO FAR SOUTH...THIS SCENARIO MAY BE SLOW IN DEVELOPING OR NOT EVEN OCCUR AT ALL. RIGHT NOW...THE COURSE OF LEAST REGRET IS TO STAY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW...BUT DRY AIR NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS NOTED INTRUDING FROM THE EAST. ALSO...THIS SYSTEM HAS HAD PROBLEMS MAINTAINING THE INNER-CORE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE AND IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL ...WHICH BRINGS THE SYSTEM UP TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 48 HOURS. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 08/1500Z 11.8N 22.1W 30 KT 12HR VT 09/0000Z 11.9N 22.6W 35 KT 24HR VT 09/1200Z 12.4N 24.0W 40 KT 36HR VT 10/0000Z 13.3N 25.8W 45 KT 48HR VT 10/1200Z 14.4N 27.4W 55 KT 72HR VT 11/1200Z 17.0N 31.0W 65 KT 96HR VT 12/1200Z 20.0N 34.0W 70 KT 120HR VT 13/1200Z 23.5N 36.0W 70 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:58 UTC