ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT FRI SEP 05 2003 THE MOST RECENT RECONNAISSANCE REPORTS...JUST BEFORE 12Z...INCLUDED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 997 MB...850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL PEAK WINDS OF 46 KT...AND A SURFACE WIND FROM A DROPSONDE OF 38 KT. BASED ON THESE OBSERVATIONS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 40 KT. SINCE 12Z...THE SATELLITE AND RADAR SIGNATURES HAVE BECOME LESS IMPRESSIVE. SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...AND TIME...WILL LIMIT ANY POSSIBLE INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO THE EXPECTED LANDFALL OF THE CENTER THIS EVENING. HEAVY RAINS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA GULF COAST AND EXTEND WELL TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 065/7. HENRI IS EMBEDDED IN A WEAK STEERING CURRENT SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS IN CALLING FOR A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO THE ATLANTIC WITHIN ABOUT 100 MILES OR SO OF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS. AFTER THAT...THE MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND THE TRACK SHOULD BEND TO THE RIGHT. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS THE FORWARD SPEED...SINCE THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONG...ESPECIALLY OVER AND NEAR THE COASTLINE. MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WOULD BE FARTHER OFFSHORE. THEREFORE...THE CLOSER HENRI TRACKS TO THE COAST IN THE ATLANTIC...THE WEAKER IT IS EXPECTED TO BE. THE GFS SUGGESTS THAT THE CIRCULATION WILL BEGIN TO ELONGATE AFTER 72 HOURS AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR DISSIPATION TO BEGIN IN 5 DAYS. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH HENRI CONTINUES TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING POTENTIAL. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/1500Z 28.3N 83.9W 40 KT 12HR VT 06/0000Z 28.7N 82.9W 45 KT 24HR VT 06/1200Z 29.6N 81.8W 35 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 07/0000Z 30.7N 80.7W 35 KT...OVER WATER 48HR VT 07/1200Z 31.8N 79.5W 35 KT 72HR VT 08/1200Z 33.5N 77.0W 30 KT 96HR VT 09/1200Z 34.5N 74.5W 30 KT 120HR VT 10/1200Z 35.0N 72.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:58 UTC