ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 39 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SAT SEP 06 2003 AN AIR FORCE RECON MEASURED A SURFACE WIND OF 235/32 KTS ON THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BERMUDA. SO THINGS SHOULD BE IMPROVING THERE FAIRLY QUICKLY. ALL GUIDANCE REMAINS CLUSTERED FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS AND THEN BEGINS TO DIVERGE AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL. A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN AS THE SHEAR INCREASES AND THE HURRICANE BEGINS TO MOVE OVER COOL WATERS. FABIAN SHOULD BE EXTRATROPICAL BY 48 HOURS OVER THE COLD WATERS OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE GFS SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP INTO A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL STORM AND THE 96 HOUR INTENSITY REFLECTS THIS. FORECASTER JARVINEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/0900Z 35.6N 63.3W 100 KT 12HR VT 06/1800Z 37.5N 61.0W 95 KT 24HR VT 07/0600Z 40.1N 57.2W 90 KT 36HR VT 07/1800Z 42.5N 52.7W 80 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 08/0600Z 44.8N 48.6W 70 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 09/0600Z 51.0N 40.9W 70 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 10/0600Z 58.2N 33.5W 80 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 11/0600Z 62.1N 31.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:58 UTC