ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT MON SEP 01 2003 SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED FROM 6 HOURS AGO AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 120 KT...PENDING ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MISSION THIS AFTERNOON. WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS. THE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE MAINTENANCE OF A STRONG HURRICANE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...SO CHANGES IN STRENGTH WILL PROBABLY BE DUE TO INNER CORE PROCESSES SUCH AS EYEWALL REPLACEMENTS. AT PRESENT THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS OF AN OUTER EYEWALL THAT WOULD TEMPORARILY RESULT IN WEAKENING. THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THINKING. A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN CANADA IS PREDICTED TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AND AMPLIFY OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SHOULD BREAK DOWN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE THAT IS CURRENTLY TO THE NORTH OF FABIAN...AND CAUSE THE HURRICANE TO TAKE A MORE NORTHWARD HEADING. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS TURN...WITH THE ENSEMBLE DEFINED BY THE NOGAPS ON THE RIGHT AND THE CANADIAN MODEL ON THE LEFT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO...BUT SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE GUNA CONSENSUS MODEL...AN AVERAGE OF THE GFDL...UKMET...NOGAPS...AND GFS. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/1500Z 18.9N 56.8W 120 KT 12HR VT 02/0000Z 19.2N 58.3W 120 KT 24HR VT 02/1200Z 20.0N 60.2W 120 KT 36HR VT 03/0000Z 21.0N 62.0W 120 KT 48HR VT 03/1200Z 22.3N 63.6W 115 KT 72HR VT 04/1200Z 25.0N 66.0W 110 KT 96HR VT 05/1200Z 29.0N 68.5W 105 KT 120HR VT 06/1200Z 34.5N 69.0W 95 KT NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC