ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2003 FABIAN HAS EVOLVED INTO A CLASSIC INTENSE HURRICANE AS SEEN IN THE LAST FEW VISIBLE AND EVENING INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES. THE INNER-CORE CONVECTION HAS BECOME CIRCULAR AND THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRICAL...AND HAS EXPANDED TO THE WEST. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 127 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND 140 KT FROM AFWA. THE 3-H OBJECTIVE T-NUMBER IS ALSO 127 KT. THE EYE HAS CLEARED OUT AND WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY...BUT CLOUD TOPS HAVE ALSO WARMED DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AND THE CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST HAS ERODED SOMEWHAT. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ONLY BEING INCREASED TO 120 KT. AIR FORCE RECON WILL BE IN AROUND 06Z AND SHOULD PROVIDE SOME RATHER INTERESTING INTENSITY DATA. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/09. THE EAST-WEST ORIENTED BERMUDA-AZORES RIDGE LOCATED ALONG 33N LATITUDE AND EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTACT THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 72 HOURS. THIS SHOULD KEEP FABIAN MOVING IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER... THE GLOBAL MODELS BRING A MID-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS EASTWARD TO NEAR THE U.S. EAST COAST. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ERODE THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND ALLOW FABIAN TO GRADUALLY TURN MORE NORTHWESTWARD. THE AMOUNT OF EROSION VARIES WITH THE NOGAPS BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND THE GFS ERODING THE RIDGE THE LEAST. THE UKMET AND GFDL ARE IN BETWEEN THE GFS AND NOGAPS MODELS. THE NOGAPS SOLUTION SEEMS EXCESSIVE GIVEN THE CURRENT STRENGTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BASED ON 500 MB HEIGHTS OF NEAR 5900 M REPORTED BY THE NOAA G-IV JET AIRCRAFT NEAR 30N LATITUDE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A TAD FASTER AND SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE GFDL...UKMET...NOGAPS...GFS CONSENSUS. SINCE FABIAN IS NEARING CATEGORY 5 INTENSITY...THERE IS NOT MUCH MORE ROOM FOR STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR. GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW AND HIGH SSTS...INNER-CORE EYE DYNAMICS WILL LIKELY DICTATE THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. THEREFORE...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST. BY 96-120 HOURS...THE LARGE-SCALE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH SHOULD BEGIN TO RESTRICT/INHIBIT THE OUTFLOW TO THE WEST...SO SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING IS INDICATED...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH BRINGS FABIAN DOWN TO 77 KT IN 120 HOURS. HOWEVER...THIS APPEARS TO BE SELF-INDUCED SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SINCE THE GFS MODEL LAGS FABIAN'S 200 MB ANTICYCLONE TO THE EAST BY 120-180 NMI. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/0300Z 18.5N 54.8W 120 KT 12HR VT 01/1200Z 18.9N 56.4W 125 KT 24HR VT 02/0000Z 19.6N 58.6W 120 KT 36HR VT 02/1200Z 20.5N 60.6W 120 KT 48HR VT 03/0000Z 21.5N 62.5W 120 KT 72HR VT 04/0000Z 24.3N 65.7W 115 KT 96HR VT 05/0000Z 27.5N 68.0W 115 KT 120HR VT 06/0000Z 32.0N 70.0W 110 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC